Friday, May 15, 2020

May 15, 2020: a historic day for wood heat technology

The end of an era for some iconic stove models and the beginning for others
Quadrafire's Mt. Vernon AE is
one of many popular, iconic stove
lines going out of production 

Ten years in the making, modern wood heater emission standards are finally here, today on May 15. Hailed by many and derided by many, May 15 brings to a close a major chapter  in the book of wood heater regulation- though not the last chapter by any means. The EPA, industry and states continue to work on cordwood test methods, parts of the Hearth, Barbecue & Patio Association (HPBA) lawsuit are still outstanding, and public comment will soon be open about a likely proposal for a fall sell-through of Step 1 stoves.

To draw an analogy from biology, today marks a mass extinction of heater models unparalleled since the 1988 – 1990 period when even more heater models died off because they could not meet basic emission standards. The largest genus of stoves to die off back then was the Fisher family of stoves, though they live on in tens if not hundreds of thousands of American homes.  A few that go extinct today are also akin to famous dinosaurs, like the Ashley circulator line of stoves, that appear to lack a 2020 compliant version for wood.  Granted, some of the most iconic stove models quietly slipped out of production years ago, like the Acclaim, Intrepid and Vigilant, which have sold more units than most current models ever will, between their catalytic and non-catalytic versions.

For pellet stoves, May 15 marks the end of the Whitfield era.  Whitfield pellet stoves are still renowned for their simplicity and durability and they lived on via the Montage model made by Lenox and then by IHP.  As of May 16, Jerry Whitfield’s legacy is alive and well in the history books but gone from showroom floors.  The Mt. Vernon AE, another classic and popular pellet stove made by Quadrafire is also gone the way of the dinosaur, (the company continues to build the slightly similar Mt. Vernon E2).
The classic Jotul F 602 endures
with a 2020 compliant version

Then there are stoves like the classic Jotul F 602 that was popular when it was introduced in the 1930s. It’s virtually identical looking modern version is 2020 compliant, and still popular. 

The millions of dedicated, experienced wood stove enthusiasts in the US may be a nostalgic lot, who fondly remember the old models and the days when emissions limits were not as strict.  But May 15, 2020 is also a milestone in stoves becoming cleaner and more efficient, a point that often seems to get lost in the acrimony about the how the EPA is managing the process.  

It’s tempting to say that the 2015 wood stove rules, that culminated today in a 2 to 2.5 gram an hour standard, will give the stove industry a new lease on life, like the 1988 EPA regulations did.  The jury is still out on how much better these stoves are than the ones allowed to emit up to 4.5 grams an hour and some models were likely brought to market too quick, before they were sufficiently field tested.  Instead of touting the new prowess of these cleaners stoves, almost all industry leaders have  been saying there is no appreciable difference between a 2-gram standard and a 4.5 standard.  Part of this is a messaging tactic to oppose stricter standards or possibly they know more about how test labs can produce ever lower emissions data from virtually the same stove.   

The sell-through that kept falling through

The May 15 deadline was a sour one for many retailers and industry members who thought that there would be a sell through.  First, the EPA raised their hopes by proposing a sell-through in 2018, only to reverse course and deny it in March 2020.  The March ruling was a blow to industry morale even though the EPA agreed to publicly tell industry in October 2019 that they should stick to the original
Senator Carper (D-DE) has emerged
as a leading voice for stricter stove
regulations in the Senate
timetable.  Then HPBA rallied again in March 2020, apparently thinking they could get a Direct Final Rule, allowing a sell-through starting on May 16, and everyone’s hopes went back up again.  And, Mandy Gunasekara was back at the EPA, after more than a year absence. But Direct Final Rules are for non-controversial changes that won’t be opposed by any stakeholder.  Senator Carper from Delaware quickly made sure that they EPA knew how contentious a sell-through was.  

It wasn’t until early May that it became clear to HPBA that getting a Direct Final Rule was like threading a needle in a hurricane, even with some high-ranking friends in the Trump Administration.  Then, HPBA seemed to quickly change course, urging industry to ignore the possible sell-through that they had fought so hard to secure.  HPBA unveiled a promising  Stoves to Homes Initiative that would allow retailers to give away their unsold Step 1 stoves to a charity who would then install them in low-income homes.   [Update: At 5:00 PM on May 15, the EPA released the details of a proposed sell-through window in the fall, ending on Nov. 30, and after public comment and an online hearing.]

HPBA worked hard on behalf of its membership on all three branches of government: Congress, the courts and the Administration.  HPBA came extremely close to victory in Congress, passing a far-reaching three year delay Bill in the House, championed by Rep. Collin Peterson (D-MN) who represents Central Boiler's district.  This was far more than a retailer sell-through and industry could not secure support from key democrats in the Senate when the initiative failed.  Many assumed industry could secure relief from the Trump Administration, as so many other industries have, and the 2018 EPA sell-through proposal was the fruit of those efforts.  Some speculate that the 2018 departure of EPA official Mandy Gunasekara left HPBA without a high-ranking benefactor to shepherd through the sell-through proposal.  It may have been left to lower
As manufacturers tried to
assure their retailers they were or
would be ready for 2020 back in
2017 and 2018 with ads like this,
the EPA saw an industry that did
not need a sell-through
level EPA staff who sided with states and air agencies that the case for a sell-through was weak.  What the EPA may have failed to grasp, was that even through many stoves were certified to 2020 standards in 2016, 2017 and 2018, many manufacturers did not make those models available to retailers until later in 2019, leaving retailers no option but to continue buying Step 1 models until the very last heating season.  

Finally, in the third branch of government, the courts, HPBA’s legal strategy seemed to unravel as it requested extension after extension and as time passed, more and more stoves were certified to the 2020 standards, including the 2.5 gram an hour cordwood standard. HPBA had a strong claim the EPA lacked sufficient data to set a cordwood standard, but then its members began favoring the looser ASTM cordwood standard.  After 5 years of advocacy, industry had little to show to the retailers, many of whom are now angry.  

Fortunately, 2018 and 2019 were mostly good years for much of the manufacturing and retail industry, according to a number of detailed articles in Hearth and Home Magazine.  The wood and pellet heater industry entered 2020 on decent footing, though many manufacturers and retailers increasingly make profits from their gas and electric lines of appliances, not wood and pellet.  Then the coronavirus hit with a broadside slam that appears to be lingering not just through the spring and summer, but potentially could have a major negative impact in the fall of 2020 and well into 2021.  The pellet stove and boiler sector is also particularly susceptible to low oil prices, which simultaneously accompanied Covid-19 in its swath of destruction through the economy.

In addition, the industry’s right-leaning, anti-regulatory tilt has built friends in Congress and the Administration, but not necessarily with the leaders of the renewable energy movement, who seem to be increasingly looking to electrify residential heat. Privately, many HPBA members say they wish the association had not tried to fight the regulations so hard, even though the outdoor boiler and warm air furnace sectors were pushing them to do just that.  If Senator Biden is elected in November, industry would likely do well to try to quickly reposition themselves and be part of coalitions that could stand to benefit from a pro-renewable administration.  Pellet heating technologies should be best positioned to benefit from some form of green new deal and potentially help end the difficult, cyclical boom-bust nature of pellet heater sales.

Certified stoves on May 16
 
A screen shot of the EPA database on
May 15, showing 610 certified stoves.
The number of stoves on the EPA’s list certified room heaters is about to plummet downward, from 610 to 211 stove models.  Hundreds of models that design firms, engineers, lab technicians, production line workers brought to market, will be things of the past.  They represent millions upon millions of stoves that families gathered around in the evening, that kept them warm during power outages, and helped them save enough money for groceries and other essentials.  My grandparents, my parents and my family used many of those stoves, considered to be the best technology of their era.  One of them, a pellet stove made in 2014 and has worked beautifully since then, heats my home as a I write this.

So we put our faith again into the hands of the engineers and lab techs to come up with even better stoves, that will be even cleaner and more efficient. We won’t see the huge PM reduction and efficiency gains that we experienced in 1988- 1990, but chopping lab numbers in half, from 4.5 to 2 or 2.5 grams is no easy feat and should be embraced by all of us.  We should applaud the engineers who do this for us, and especially those who are working not just to achieve these numbers in a lab but who are trying to ensure stoves are cleaner in our living rooms.  
Both wood stoves up for
awards at the HPBA 2020
Expo were automated, a
sign that the stove industry
is movig forward.

Reducing average stove emissions by a gram or two or three per hour from a stove is a major achievement that will protect the lungs of not just those that buy stoves, but their kids, their parents, their grandparents – and their neighbors.  Granted it will take decades for these cleaner and more efficient stoves to be commonplace in homes across America.  After all, there are still millions of uncertified, pre-1988 stoves in homes.  

But we should not forget that the drop to 4.5 grams an hour actually happened more when Washington State changed their standards in 1995, than it did in 2015 when the EPA adopted that change.  Those two decades of sales of cleaner stoves all across America were a blessing that has had long-term ramifications.  Two decades from now, I hope we will be able to look back and appreciate the engineers who designed these cleaner 2020 appliances and gave a new lease on life to this vital renewable energy technology.

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